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Sterling Weekly for August 24th, 2009

Since the publication of the previous edition of the Sterling Weekly the overall market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 184.56 points or approximately 2.0% to finish last week at 9,505.96 While the trend of the overall market has been to the upside, the market appears to be a little skittish at times. By its very nature, it wants to believe that the economy is doing well; but it seams very worried that the economy could turn south at the drop of a hat. One of the very big problems the market has is that the vast majority of the market participants don't remember what it was like the last time we had an economy like this one. This is because we have to look all the way back to the 1970's and early 80's to find a similar economic situation, and most of the market participants were not old enough to be paying attention to the market back then, so they don't know or remember what it was like, and they just aren't sure what to do now.

With respects to the current market, we have undoubtedly been through one of the greatest market pullbacks in history. The question now is what do we make of the current market rally. Well the tradition rule of thumb is that a market will retrace 1/2 of its previous move. I was taught that this was known as a Fibonacci Retracement, and a more accurate description was that the market or an individual stock would retrace between 1/3 and 2/3rds or its previous move, before resuming its previous course. So let's look at some numbers. The overall market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average set an all time closing high of 14,164.53 in October of 2007, and reached a closing low of 6,547.05 this spring. This represents a downward movement of 7,617.48 points. A 1/3rd retracement of that downward move would be a rally to 9,086.21 on the Dow; a 2/3rds retracement would be a rally to 11,625.37 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once the Dow is in that range between a 1/3rd and 2/3rds retracement it could easily turn and move back lower. In case you are wondering, a 50% retracement, which is what the media focuses on, would put the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10,355.79 While I am not trying to predict where the Dow will go from here, I do think it is important that we do not forget these retracement rules and where they put the Dow.

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Sterling Calendars for the Week of August 24th, 2009
Economic Calendar
Date Est. Time Release

For

Consensus Prior
08/25 9:00am S&P/Case-Shiller Home Index Jun (16.4%) (17.06%)
08/25 10:00am Consumer Confidence Aug 48.0 46.6
08/26 8:30am Durable Orders Jul 3.2% (2.5%)
08/26 8:30am Durables, Ex Transportation Jul 1.0% 1.1%
08/26 10:00am New Home Sales Jul 390K 384K
08/26 10:30am Crude Inventories 08/21   (8.4M)
08/27 8:30am Initial Claims 08/22 565K 576K
08/27 8:30am Q2 GDP-Preliminary Q2 (1.4%) (1.0%)
08/27 8:30am GDP Deflator Q2 0.2% 0.2%
08/27 8:30am Core PCE Q2 2.0% 2.0%
08/28 8:30am Personal Income Jul 0.1% (1.3%)
08/28 8:30am Personal Spending Jul 0.2% 0.4%
08/28 8:30am PCE Core Jul 0.1% 0.2%
08/28 9:55am Michigan Sentinment-Revised Aug 64.8 63.2


Prime Update:

Sterling Investment Services is currently offering FREE SUBSCRIPTIONS to its daily Prime Stock Newsletter. This FREE SUBSCRIPTION OFFER is available between now and September 1st. In order to take advantage of this FREE SUBSCRIPTION OFFER please click (here.) Additionally, Performance Reports on our trading recommendations can be found (here.)

Our most recent Performance Report is now available available (here). 14 of our last 20 recommendation resulted in profitable trades for an average profit of $0.78/share. This is an 78% success rate.

Highlights from Recent (20) Editions of the Prime Stock Newsletter
Recommendation Date Entry Point Recent Close or Exit Price Profit* Note
Metavante Tech. 'MV' July 28 $28.12 $32.36 $4.24 Sold on August 6th
Goodyear Tire 'GT' July 24 $14.14 $18.84 $4.70 Sold on August 4th
US Steel 'X' Aug 5 $44.00 $45.81 $1.81 Sold August 6th
* Our August 12th, short sale recommendation of Borg Warner 'BWA' reached our stated price target of $30.10/share on August 19th.
** Our August 3rd recommendation of Massey Energy 'MEE' reached its our upside price target on August 13th.
*** Our July 29th recommendation of Discovery Communications 'DISCA' set a new yearly high on August 10th.
**** Our July 28th recommendation of Metavante Tech. 'MV' surpassed our stated price target of $29.30/share on July 29th.
**** Our July 23rd recommendation of Ross Stores 'ROST' surpassed our stated price target of $44.53/share on July 30th, and it set a new yearly closing high on August 21st.
* The per share PROFIT is a theoretical calculation based upon the opening price the day the recommendation is published and the intra day high (or low for short sales) on the exit day. The exit day is determined based upon the application of our "Rules for Trading", the implementation of "stops" within our stated policy, and may not reflect the complete or full movement of the underlying recommendation.

 

Disclaimer: The Sterling Investments series of newsletters is produced by Sterling Investment Services, Inc. All information used in the production has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. Sterling Investment Services does not warrant or assume any liability for inaccuracy of the information used to produce our publications. To receive further information on these services please visit our web page at: www.sterlinginvestments.com If you would like to contact us our fax # is (404)-816-8830 Email address is: enelson@sterlinginvestments.com Sterling Investment Services may hold positions in the securities recommended or may be providing consulting services to the companies mentioned within this report.
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