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Sterling Weekly for November 14th, 2005

Well, the overall market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher over the course of the last week. For the record the Dow advanced 110.94 points or approximately 1%. Not a bad week. For the last couple of weeks I have been talking about a triangle pattern forming on the Dow and what to expect as a result. (To review that article please click here) One of the things about triangle patterns that I have found to be different from a lot of other patterns that are drawn with trendlines is that the trendlines on a triangle pattern can be a little fuzzy at times. What I mean by this is that sometimes they will be violated, giving a false sense of a break one way or the other only to return to oscillating within the converging trendlines. Currently we have broken above the downward sloping upper trendline on the Dow. I am almost certainly expecting a round of profit taking, sometimes referred to as a pullback in the market. Whether we return to oscillating within this pattern or whether that broken trendline that was previous resistance becomes support remains to be seen. Time will tell and I don't think we will need to wait long to find out.

Last week I wrote about the Amex Broker/Dealer Index 'XBD' and Merrill Lynch 'MER' both of which had recently set new yearly highs. Well, both the Broker/Dealer Index 'XBD' and Merrill Lynch 'MER' continued to push higher throughout the week with both of them setting new yearly highs again today, Monday the 14th. Today the Amex Disk Drive Index 'DDX' set a new yearly high.

The 'DDX' is designed to measure the performance of a cross section of companies active in designing and manufacturing electronic data storage devices for computers, as well as software that helps computers interface with those devices. The components of the index are Sandisk 'SNDK', Adaptec 'ADPT, M-Sys. Flash 'FLSH' Advanced Digital 'ADIC', Network Appliance 'NTAP', Quantum Corp. 'DDS', Seagate Technology 'STX', Iomega 'IOM' (I didn't realize they were still even in business) Hutchinson Tech. 'HTCH', and Maxtor Corp. 'MXO'. This is an older sector index having more relevance when it was established back in 1996 than it does now. But the fact that it is setting a new yearly high when the personal computer manufacturers are having a tough year should tell us something. A couple of these companies don't even produce disk drives, but they do produce flash memory storage. You know that memory used in an Ipod and the memory sticks used in digital cameras. It is the performance of SanDisk 'SNDK' and M-Sys. Flash Memory 'FLSH' that are powering this index to new yearly highs, and considering that that the market for actual disk drives is a bare knuckle brawl of competition and has been for as long as I can remember it will probably be those 2 companies that help the 'DDX' continue to set new yearly highs. Personally I like 'SNDK' the better of the two. I think the 'DDX' will continue to move higher over the course of the next couple of months and test its highs of 150 set in January of 2004. If it does SNDK and FLSH will be rewarding to those investors who go along for the ride.

Sterling Calendars for the Week of November 14th, 2005
Economic Calendar
Date Est. Time Release For

Consensus Prior
11/15 8:30am NY Empire State Index Nov 17.0 15.5 12.1
11/15 8:30am Retail Sales Oct. (1.1%) (0.7%) 0.2%
11/15 8:30am Retail Sales ex. Auto Oct 0.2% 0.3% 1.1%
11/15 8:30am PPI Oct. (0.2%) 0.0% 1.9%
11/15 8:30am Core PPI Oct. 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
11/16 8:30am CPI Oct. 0.1% 0.0% 1.2%
11/16 8:30am Core CPI Oct. 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
11/16 8:30am Business Inventories Sep 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
11/16 9:00am Net Foreign Purchases       91.30B
11/16 10:30am Crude Inventories 11/11     4,424K
11/17 8:30am Initial Claims 11/12 320k 322k 326k
11/17 8:30am Housing Starts Oct 2,075k 2,060k 2,108k
11/17 8:30am Building Permits Oct 2,175k 2,170k 2,219k
11/17 9:15am Industrial Production Oct. 1.0% 1.0% (1.5%)
11/17 9:15am Capacity Utilization Oct. 79.7% 79.6% 79.0%
11/17 12:00am Philadelphia Fed. Nov. 18.0 15.0 17.3

  Misc. Calendar
Date: Comments:
Nov. 14 Agilent Tech. 'A' reports earnings after the close. Est. $0.37
Nov. 14 Lowe's Companies 'LOW' reports earnings. Time N/A. Est. $0.77
Nov. 14. Wal-Mart reports earnings. Time N/A. Est $0.57
Nov. 15   Abercrombie & Fitch 'ANF' reports earnings after the close. Est. $0.80
Nov. 15  American Eagle Outfitters 'AEOS' reports earnings before the open. Est. $0.46
Nov. 15   Anolog Devices 'ADI' reports earnings after the close. Est. $0.34
Nov. 15   Home Depot 'HD' reports earnings before the open. Est. $0.68
Nov. 15  JC Penny 'JCP' reports earnings before the open. Est. $0.92
Nov. 16   Applied Material 'AMAT' reports earnings at 4:30pm. Est. $0.14/share
Nov. 16   D.R. Horton 'DHI' reports earnings before the open. Est. $1.63/share
Nov. 16   Intuit 'INTU" reports earnings after the close. Est. ($0.31)
Nov. 16   Medtronic 'MDT' reports earnings after the close. Est. $0.54
Nov. 17   Autodesk 'ADSK' reports earnings after the close. Est. $0.30
Nov. 17 Barnes & Noble 'BKS' reports earnings before the open. Est. ($0.02)
Nov. 17   Mesa Air 'MESA' reports earnings. Time N/A. Est. $0.31
Nov. 18   AnnTaylor Stores 'ANN' reports earnings before the open. Est. $0.37
  The full earnings calendar for this week can be found (here)

Prime Update:

Sterling Investment Services is an investment research and money management firm publishing the Prime Stock Newsletter. The Prime Stock Newsletter is a daily comprehensive newsletter that is useful for investors and traders alike. Whether you are looking for short term trading opportunities ranging from day trading to a couple of weeks or if you looking to acquire a long term portfolio at smart entry points. Subscriptions are $50/month. A Free 2 Week Trial is currently being offered.

Highlights from Recent editions of the Prime Stock Newsletter
Recommendation Date Entry Point Recent Close or Exit Price Profit* Note
Caterpillar 'CAT' shorted Oct. 13 $54.56/share $48.25 intra day low on October 21st


Very negative chart ahead of earnings.
Alcoa 'AA' Nov. 2 $24.30 $26.82 $2.52 Should still move higher.
Starbucks 'SBUX'

Nov. 1

28.30 $30.97 Nov. 7th $2.67  
* The per share PROFIT is a theoretical calculation based upon the opening price the day the recommendation is published and the intra day high (or low for short sales) on the exit day. The exit day is determined based upon the application of our "Rules for Trading", the implementation of "stops" within our stated policy, and may not reflect the complete or full movement of the underlying recommendation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 10,697.17 Last Signal: None. Current Expectations: I am expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to move higher and test 10,705.55 and then 10,940.55 on a closing basis. I would not be surprised to see a short term pullback after the Dow tests the 10,705.55 level before it rallies towards 10,940.55

The S&P 500

Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,233.71 Last Signal: none Current Expectation: I am expecting the S&P 500 to move higher and test 1,241.48 and then 1,245.04 on a closing basis.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,651.90 Last Signal: none Current Expectations: I am expecting the NDX to move higher and test 1,675.03 and then 1,720.91

CBOE Ten Year Treasury Index (TNX)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 4.604% Last Signal: Called Lower after the close of trading on November 8th at 4.565% Current Expectations: This index should move lower and test then 4.508% on a closing basis. However this is probably a shorter term pullback before the index moves back higher.

Disclaimer: The Sterling Investments series of newsletters is produced by Sterling Investment Services, Inc. All information used in the production has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. Sterling Investment Services does not warrant or assume any liability for inaccuracy of the information used to produce our publications. To receive further information on these services please visit our web page at: If you would like to contact us our fax # is (404)-816-8830 Email address is: Sterling Investment Services may hold positions in the securities recommended or may be providing consulting services to the companies mentioned within this report.
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