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Sterling Weekly for November 3rd, 2008

The overall market as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 946.06 on the week to finish last Friday at 9,325.01. This amounted to a gain of approximately 11.2% on the week; a rather impressive move. However I would not take the market's strength last week as a sign of the start of a new upward trend in the market. My thoughts are that the election is going to have a major impact on the direction of the market, and what we are seeing is some repositioning ahead of Tuesday's election. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average is no longer in a condition of being dramatically oversold on a technical basis, it is still facing significant downward pressure. There are a pair of downward trendlines that form a downward trading band that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken significantly below. The Dow Jones Industrial Average still has a significant way to go before it reaches the lower of the two downward trendlines, and unfortunately the lower downward trendline is now a form of upside resistance instead of the downside support it previous provided. And, if the Dow could break above the lower of the two trendlines, it would still see significant downward pressure from the upper trendline. Regardless of who wins the Presidential election on Tuesday I would not look for the Dow Jones Industrial Average returning to its previous highs anytime soon.

Chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average

I've been looking at several long term charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and my thoughts are that when the Dow does finally rally it will most likely consolidate in the 10,300 range. Where it goes from there is really the big question. If business conditions are favorable, then I would see the Dow Jones ultimately moving towards the 20,000 level. If business conditions are unfavorable I see the Dow Jones dropping down to the 5,700 level. We will have a good idea on Wednesday morning how the business climate is going to shape up.


Sterling Calendars for the Week of November 3rd, 2008
Economic Calendar
Date Est. Time Release For

Briefing.com

Consensus Prior
11/03 10:00am Construction Spending Sep.   (0.8%) 0.0%
11/03 10:00am ISM Index Oct   42.0 43.5
11/04   Auto Sales Oct     4.3M
11/04   Truck Sales Oct     5.3M
11/04 10:00am Factory Orders Sep.   (1.5%) (4.0%)
11/05 8:15am ADP Employment Oct.   (80k) (8k)
11/05 10:00am ISM Services Oct   48.5 50.2
11/06 8:30am Initial Claims 11/01      
11/06 8:30am Productivity-Prel. Q3   1.0% 4.3%
11/07 8:30am Average Workweek Oct.     33.6
11/07 8:30am Nonfarm Payrolls Oct.     (159K)
11/07 8:30am Unemployment Rate Oct.     6.1%
11/07 10:00am Pending Home Sales Sep.     7.4%
11/07 10:00am Wholesale Inventories Sep.     0.8%
11/07 3:00pm Consumer Credit Sep.     ($7.9B)

  Misc. Calendar
Date: Comments:
11/03 Anadarko Petroleum 'APC' announces earnings after the close. Est. $1.48
11/03 Bronco Drilling 'BRNC' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.23
11/03 Stifel Financial 'SF' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.51
11/04 Archer Daniels Midland 'ADM' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.69
11/04 Atlas Pipeline Partners 'APL' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.75
11/04 Cowen & Company 'COWN' announces earnings before the open. Est. ($0.16)
11/04 HPC, Inc. 'HPC' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.66
11/04 Heartland Payment Systems 'HPY' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.34
11/04 UBS 'UBS' announces earnings at 1:00pm Et. Est. $0.09
11/05 Brightpoint, Inc. 'CELL' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.06
11/05 Cisco Systems 'CSCO' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.39
11/05 Conseco 'CNO' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.27
11/05 Devon Energy 'DVN' announces earnings before the open. Est $3.07
11/05 Kinross Gold 'KGC' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.31
11/05 March & McLennan 'MMC' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.32
11/06 Barr Pharmaceuticals 'BRL' announces earnings. Time N/A. Est. $0.71
11/06 King Pharmaceuticals 'KG' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.26
11/06 NVIDIA Corp. 'NVDA' announces earnings. Time N/A. est. $0.12
11/07 Ford Motor 'F' announces earnings before the open. Est. ($0.93 )
  The full earnings calendar for this week can be found (here)

Prime Update:

Sterling Investment Services is an investment research and money management firm publishing the Prime Stock Newsletter. The Prime Stock Newsletter is a daily comprehensive newsletter that is useful for investors and traders alike. Whether you are looking for short term trading opportunities ranging from day trading to a couple of weeks or if you looking to acquire a long term portfolio at smart entry points. Subscriptions are $50/month. A Free 2 Week Trial is currently being offered.

Our most recent Performance Report is now available available (here). 17 of our last 20 recommendation resulted in profitable trades for an average profit of $2.98/share. This is an 85% success rate.

Highlights from Recent editions of the Prime Stock Newsletter
Recommendation Date Entry Point Recent Close or Exit Price Profit* Note
Kohl's Corp. 'KSS' Short Sale Oct. 9th $38.52 $29.87 $8.65 Closed out Oct. 10th.
Potash Sask 'POT' Short Sale Oct 22nd $70.11 $63.58 $6.53 Covered on the 22nd. Intra-day low of $40.21

Weyerhaeuser 'WY' Short Sale

Oct 15

$46.62 $32.37 $14.25 Covered on the 16th. Note the shares closed the 24th @ $30.59
* The per share PROFIT is a theoretical calculation based upon the opening price the day the recommendation is published and the intra day high (or low for short sales) on the exit day. The exit day is determined based upon the application of our "Rules for Trading", the implementation of "stops" within our stated policy, and may not reflect the complete or full movement of the underlying recommendation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 9,325.01 Last Signal: Called Lower (again) with the close of 8,378.95 on October 24th. Current Expectations: Ask me after the election


The S&P 500

Current Opinion: Closed @ 968.75 Last Signal: Called Lower (again) with the close of 876.77 on October 24th. Current Expectations: Ask me after the election.


The NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,334.78 Last Signal: Called Lower (again) with the close of 1,202.27 on October 22nd. Current Expectations: Ask me after the election.


CBOE Ten Year Treasury Index (TNX)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 3.970% Current Expectations: With the current market turmoil it is anyone's guess where interest rates are going. However, my guess is that short term debt instruments will be more sought after than longer term ones.


Disclaimer: The Sterling Investments series of newsletters is produced by Sterling Investment Services, Inc. All information used in the production has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. Sterling Investment Services does not warrant or assume any liability for inaccuracy of the information used to produce our publications. To receive further information on these services please visit our web page at: www.sterlinginvestments.com If you would like to contact us our fax # is (404)-816-8830 Email address is: enelson@sterlinginvestments.com Sterling Investment Services may hold positions in the securities recommended or may be providing consulting services to the companies mentioned within this report.
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