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Sterling Weekly for August 15th, 2005

Well, the major news last week came down to two basic items, interest rates and the price of oil. I was originally going to discuss the price of oil and where I think it is going in this week's edition of the Sterling Weekly, however I could not find a satisfactory chart from which I could get the necessary price data; I'll try to find one this week and discuss my outlook on oil in next week's newsletter. In the meantime I would like to point out that in the March 7th edition of this newsletter I wrote that the price of oil would go to $64-$69/barrel, a price level it reached last week. I think we might see a round of profit taking and a pull back in the price of oil in the near future, but where it goes from their remains to be seen.

Last week the Federal Open Market Committee meet and raised short term interest rates. The big debate relating to interest rates is when the Fed will stop raising interest rates. Well my expectations are that the Fed will keep raising interest rates until the Fed Funds Rate is between 4.0-4.5%, which means that the Fed will raise rates another 1.0-1.25%. The Fed meets every six weeks, so that means the Fed will finally be done raising interest rates in 24-30 weeks, basically sometime between December and February. My reasoning for this is very simple, historically the Fed Funds Rate has been approximately 1.25% above the rate of inflation, which is currently about 3.0%, you can do the rest of the math.

Sterling Calendars for the Week of August 15th, 2005
Economic Calendar
Date Est. Time Release For

Briefing.com

Consensus Prior
8/15 8:30am NY Empire State Index Aug 20.0 20.0 23.9
8/16 8:30am CPI Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
8/16 8:30am Core CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
8/16 8:30am Housing Starts Jul 2,000K 2,023K 2,004K
8/16 8:30am Building Permits Jul 2,070K 2,110K 2,132K
8/16 9:15am Industrial Production Jul 0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
8/16 9:15am Capacity Utilization Jul 80.5% 80.3% 80.0%
8/17 8:30am PPI Jul 0.6% 0.5% 0.0%
8/17 8:30am Core PPI Jul 0.2% 0.1% (0.1%)
8/18 8:30am Initial Claims 8/13 310K 310K 308K
8/18 10:00am Leading Indicator Jul 0.0% 0.2% 0.9%
8/18 12:00pm Philadelphia Fed Aug 17.0 14.5 9.6

  Misc. Calendar
Date: Comments:
8/15 Agilent Technologies 'A' reports earnings before the Open est. $0.26
8/15 Gateway 'GTW' reports earnings after the close. est. $0.02
8/15 Lowes 'LOW' reports earnings. Time not supplied est. $1.02
8/16 American Eagle 'AEOS' reports earnings before the open. est. $0.36
8/16 Deere & Co. 'DE' reports earnings before the open. est. $1.89
8/16 Hewlett-Packard 'HPQ' reports earnings. Time not supplied. est. $0.31
8/16 Home Deport 'HD' reports earnings before the open. est. $0.79
8/16 JC Penny 'JCP' reports earnings before the open. est. $0.40
8/16 Wal-Mart 'WMT' reports earnings before the open. est. $0.65
8/18 JDS Uniphase 'JDSU' reports earnings after the close. est. ($0.02)
8/19 AnnTaylor Stores 'ANN' reports earnings before the open. est. $0.17

Prime Update:

Sterling Investment Services is an investment research and money management firm publishing the Prime Stock Newsletter. The Prime Stock Newsletter is a daily comprehensive newsletter that is useful for investors and traders alike. Whether you are looking for short term trading opportunities ranging from day trading to a couple of weeks or if you looking to acquire a long term portfolio at smart entry points. Subscriptions are $50/month. A Free 2 Week Trial is currently being offered.

Highlights from Recent editions of the Prime Stock Newsletter
Recommendation Date Entry Point Recent Close or Exit Price Profit* Note
BCE, Inc. 'BCE' Aug 5 $25.00/share $25.95 intra day high on Aug 11th. $0.95  
United Health 'UNH' shorted Aug 8 $52.06 $51.02 intra day low on Aug. 9th $12.7  
Massey Energy 'MEE'

Aug 10

$46.46 $48.26/share close on Aug 12th $1.80 Should move higher.
* The per share PROFIT is a theoretical calculation based upon the opening price the day the recommendation is published and the intra day high (or low for short sales) on the exit day. The exit day is determined based upon the application of our "Rules for Trading", the implementation of "stops" within our stated policy, and may not reflect the complete or full movement of the underlying recommendation.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 10,600.31 Last Signal: Called Lower on August 5th with the previous day's close of 10,0610.10 Current Expectations: I am expecting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to pullback over the short term and move lower and test 10,546.32 If the Dow closes below this level then it should continue to move lower and test 10,432.51

The S&P 500

Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,230.39 Last Signal: Called Lower on August 5th with the previous day's close of 1,235.86 Current Expectation: I am expecting the S&P 500 to to pullback over the short term and test 1,225.31 and then 1,2166.96 if the support at 1,225.31 fails to hold.

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,591.75 Last Signal: Called Lower on August 5th with the previous day's close of 1,608.74 Current Expectations: I am expecting the NDX to pullback over the short term and test 1,568.96

CBOE Ten Year Treasury Index (TNX)

Current Opinion: Closed @ 4.238% Last Signal: Called Lower on August 15th with the previous day's close of 4.238% Current Expectations: The TNX should move lower and test 4.196% and then 4.177% on a closing basis.

Disclaimer: The Sterling Investments series of newsletters is produced by Sterling Investment Services, Inc. All information used in the production has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. Sterling Investment Services does not warrant or assume any liability for inaccuracy of the information used to produce our publications. To receive further information on these services please visit our web page at: www.sterlinginvestments.com If you would like to contact us our fax # is (404)-816-8830 Email address is: enelson@sterlinginvestments.com Sterling Investment Services may hold positions in the securities recommended or may be providing consulting services to the companies mentioned within this report.
 
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