I would like to take this opportunity to express my support and wishes for a safe return home to our military personnel fighting overseas to protect our freedom and safety, and to bring freedom to a severely oppressed people.

The overall market has been moving lower and the realities of the war in Iraq have begun to set in. I feel there are 2 very clear misconceptions about the war with Iraq that caused the recent runup, resulting in this move back lower. The first is that unless we defeat Saddam Hussein in 1-2 weeks we have failed. When it became clear that we would go to war with Iraq if Saddem Hussein did not disarm, I originally thought the war would take 2-4 months. Then as I started watching the History Channel and the Discovery Channel, and listening to their statements that some of our military thinkers thought we could take Baghdad in 10-12 days. I guess a lot of people were watching the same programs I was. I do not believe our objective is to see how quickly we can conquer Baghdad, but to liberate the Iraqi people for one of the most oppressive regimes in the last quarter century. This means there are allot more things to take into consideration than how quickly we can reach Baghdad. However, I would like to point out that we have moved further, faster, and with greater precision and less civilian casualties than any army in the history of the world. The Bottom Line: While the war is not going perfect, it is definitely going very well, as far as wars go.

The second misconception concerning the war with Iraq is that it will cure all that ails our economy. While there are some obvious benefits to removing Saddem Hussien from power and establishing a democracy in Iraq, I view them all as long term benefits. We still need to address the hard issues facing our economy; tax policy, industry regulations, tort reform, social security reform, healthcare, welfare reform (how to we educate & put people to work, rather than paying them not to work) The war addresses none of these issues, but I believe the actions of our government will have an immediate impact upon peoples behavior and impact our economy.

There is a massive amount of debate about the benefits of defeating Saddem Hussien and creating a democracy in the Middle East. At this point in time we can start to say that if things go right, then we have a reasonable range of expections. However until things actually occur there is always the possibilities of unexpected surprises. Right now, I think a successful resolution to the war in Iraq, and the installation of stable interim government without a lot of terrorist activity should allow the market to return to its pre September 11th levels. Based upon this, I would say the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be in the 9,500 - 10,500 range. You can place your own time estimates on when this will occur.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Monday at 7,992.31 down 153.64 points.

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 848.18 down 15.32 points. The S&P 500 looks over extended in a similar fashion to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Today's Opinion: Closed @ 848.18 Current Expections: We called the market lower with the close on March 24th, and downgraded it with a "Sell Signal" with the close on March 25th. The S&P 500 should continue to move lower and test 817.37

The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,018.66 down 28.06 points. This index gapped lower on the open on Monday. The trend of the NDX is clearly to the downside. It appears that the NDX is going to move lower and fill the gap created March13th, when the index gapped higher on the open.

Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,018.66 Current Expectations: Called Lower with the close on March 24th @ 1,047.10. Downgraded with a "Sell Signal" with the close on March 25th @ 1,066.57 The NDX should move lower and test 1,015.92, if it closes below that level then it should move lower and test 970.54