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PRIME STOCK NEWSLETTER FOR JANUARY 19th, 2010

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Position Statement: In our Prime Recommendation Letter we attempt to identify the recommendation with the highest probability of moving higher.  We recommend that stop orders be placed at the time of purchase,  and once the position has moved profitable we recommend a stop be placed a minimum of $0.375 above the purchase price and moved higher as the position moves higher.

Today's Comments: The overall market finished Friday sharply lower in a broad based move that saw every sector index I track move lower on the day. The weakest sectors were the Semiconductors, Airlines, Banking, Gold/Silver, Transports, High Tech, Oil Services, Commodities, Cyclicals, and Consumer indices.

A couple of important items from my review of Friday's trading activity. 1st the majority of the sector indices I track have negative chart patterns; and 2nd the majority of the heavy volume stocks I looked at had downward chart patterns. These 2 items when occurring together generally precede a market pullback.

One wild card in today's trading is the special Senate election in Massachusetts to fill the vacancy created by the death of Ted Kennedy.


Sterling Calendars for January 19th, 2010
Economic Calendar

Date

Est. Time Release

For

Consensus Prior
01/19 9:00am Net Long TERM TIC Flows Nov. $27.5B $20.7B
01/20 8:30am Building Permits Dec. 580K 584K
01/20 8:30am Housing Starts Dec. 575K 574K
01/20 8:30am Core PPI Dec. 0.1% 0.5%
01/20 8:30am PPI Dec. 0.0% 1.8%
01/21 8:30am Initial Claims 01/16 440K 444K
01/21 8:30am Continuing Claims 01/09 4,600K 4,596K
01/21 10:00am Leading Indicators Dec. 0.7% 0.9%
01/21 10:00am Philadelphia Fed. Jan. 18.8 20.4
01/21 11:00am Crude Inventories 01/15 N/A 3.70M
Date: Comments:
01/19 Citibank 'C' announces earnings before the open. Est. ($0.33)
01/19 CSX Corp. 'CSX' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.76
01/19 Int'l Business Machines 'IBM' announces earnings after the close. Est. $3.47
01/19 McMorran Exploration 'MMR' announces earnings before the open. Est. ($0.26)
01/19 Parker Hanifin Corp. 'PH' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.35
01/19 TD Ameritrade 'AMTD' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.26
01/20 AMR Corporation 'AMR' announces earnings. Time N/A. Est. ($1.19)
01/20 Bank of America 'BAC' announces earnings. Time N/A Est. ($0.52)
01/20 eBay, Inc. 'EBAY' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.40
01/20 Morgan Stanley 'MS' announces earnings at 8:00am. Est. 0.36
01/21 American Express 'AXP' announces earnings after the close. Est. $0.55
01/21 Continental Airlines 'CAL' announces earnings before the open. Est ($0.10)
01/21 Goldman Sachs 'GS' announces earnings before the open. Est $5.19
01/21 Google 'GOOG' announces earnings after the close. Est. $6.43
01/21 Western Digital 'WDC' announces earnings after the close. Est. $1.35
01/22 General Electric 'GE' announces earnings before the open. Est. $0.26
01/22 McDonald's Corp. 'MDC' announces earnings before the open. Est. $1.02
01/22 Schlumberger 'SLB' announces earnings at 6:00am ET. Est. $0.63
  The full earnings calendar for this week can be found (here)

 


Recommendation: Sell/Short

Western Digital Corp. 'WDC'

Company: Western Digital Corp. Symbol: 'WDC' Closing Price: $43.98

Web: www.westerndigital.com

YH: $47.44 YL: $12.01 EPS: $2.41 P/E: 18

Shares Outstanding: 225 Million

Forecasted EPS: $4.72 Market Cap.: $10 Billion
Dividend: N/A Yield: N/A Aver. Daily Trading Volume: 3.5 Million Shares  
Price Targets:  $39.60 and then $39.16 Upside Stop:  $45.07/share
Options Rec.: February 45 Puts @ $2.75/contract Options Symbol: WDC N45

Additional information on Western Digital Corp. 'WDC' can be found (here)

Company Description: Western Digital Corporation engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of hard drives worldwide. It offers hard drives, including 3.5-inch, 2.5-inch, 1.8-inch, and 1.0-inch form factor drives under WD Caviar, WD RE, WD VelociRaptor, WD Scorpio, WD Elements, WD AV, My Passport, My Book, My DVR Expander, and WD GreenPower Technology brand names. The company’s hard drives are used in desktop computers, notebook computers, enterprise storage, workstations, video surveillance equipment, networking products, digital video recorders, satellite and cable set-top boxes, and external storage appliances. Western Digital Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and original design manufacturers for inclusion in computer systems or subsystems, distributors, resellers, and retailers. It has a collaboration agreement with NEC Electronics Corp. to promote the SuperSpeed Universal Serial Bus 3.0 standard, an interface to be used in a range of electronic devices, including personal computers (PC), PC peripherals, and digital appliances. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, California..

Chart for Mosaic Company

Chart updates daily

Recent News:
01/15 Disk Drives: Barclays Launches Coverage; Likes STX Over WDC at Barrons.com (Fri, Jan 15)
 
  01/11 Seagate: Argus Upgrades To Buy at Barrons.com (Mon, Jan 11)
  01/05 Western Digital: Is Put Buying Just Protective? at Seeking Alpha (Tue, Jan 5)
A full list of the news headlines for Western Digital Corp. 'WDC' can be found (here)

Our Analysis: The shares of Western Digital Corp. 'WDC' moved sharply lower on heavy trading volume on Friday. They finished the day by closing below a recently established support level. Additionally the shares of 'WDC' are a component of the Disk Drive Index 'DDX' which I have rated as moving lower from its current levels. These are both bearish trading signals for the shares of 'WDC'. I see the shares of 'WDC' continuing to move lower and test $39.60/share, the point from which they gapped higher on the open of trading on December 16th of last year. If the shares of 'WDC' close below that level, then I expect them to continue to move lower and test $39.16/share, a point of downside support established on November 16th of last year. I see upside resistance on the shares of 'WDC' @ $44.69/share, and have set my stops accordingly at $45.07/share.


Stocks Looking Higher

MA, PFE, SYMC, UNH, KNL, HLF, BJS, VLO, MO, WLP, MJN, CHKP, NBL, ALTH

Stocks Looking Lower
AMAT, TSM, SLM, STP, TWX, KLAC, ADI, BBY, CREE, TER, WDC, MXIM, URBN, FCS, FRX, VRTX, WTI, NETC, RINO

Yesterday's Edition of the Prime Stock Newsletter
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