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PRIME STOCK NEWSLETTER FOR JANUARY 14th, 2010

(If you do not see today's edition, please hit the refresh button)

Position Statement: In our Prime Recommendation Letter we attempt to identify the recommendation with the highest probability of moving higher.  We recommend that stop orders be placed at the time of purchase,  and once the position has moved profitable we recommend a stop be placed a minimum of $0.375 above the purchase price and moved higher as the position moves higher.

Today's Comments: The overall market finished Wednesday moderately higher in a very broad based move that saw every sector index I track move higher on the day. The strongest sectors were the High Tech, Banking, Biotech, Natural Gas, Healthcare, Commodities, Oil Services, and Transports. There was weakness in bonds as interest rates moved higher. Oil was lower by $1.09 to $79.70/barrel, and Gold was higher by $9.50 to $1,138.90 per ounce.

Please note that I will not be publishing a newsletter on Friday January 15th due to a doctor's appointment.


Sterling Calendars for January 14th, 2010
Economic Calendar
Date Est. Time Release

For

Consensus Prior
01/14 8:30am Initial Claims 01/09 433K 434K
01/14 8:30am Continuing Claims 01/02 4,800K 4,802K
01/14 8:30am Retail Sales Dec. 0.5% 1.3%
01/14 8:30am Retail Sales Ex-Auto Dec. 0.3% 1.2%
01/14 8:30am Export Prices Ex-Ag. Dec. N/A 0.7%
01/14 8:30am Import Prices Ex-Oil Dec. N/A 0.4%
01/14 10:00am Business Inventories Nov. 0.2% 0.2%
01/15 8:30am Core CPI Dec. 0.1% 0.0%
01/15 8:30am CPI Dec. 0.2% 0.4%
01/18 8:30am Empire Manufacturing Survey Jan. 11.25 2.55
01/15 9:15am Capacity Utilization Dec. 71.8% 71.3%
01/15 9:15am Industrial Production Dec. 0.6% 0.8%
01/15 9:55am Michigan Sentiment Jan. 73.8 72.5

Recommendation: Sell/Short

Fibria Celulose S.A. 'FBR'

Company: Fibria Celulose SA Symbol: 'FBR' Closing Price: $21.59

Web: www.fibria.com.br/pt/

YH: $24.46 YL: $3.88 EPS: N/A P/E: N/A

Shares Outstanding: 417 Million

Forecasted EPS: $1.82 Market Cap.: $9.9 Billion
Dividend: N/A Yield: N/A Aver. Daily Trading Volume: 1.3 Million Shares  
Price Targets:  $20.11 and then $17.86 Upside Stop:  $22.63/share
Options Rec.: January 22 1/2 Puts @ $1.00/contract Options Symbol: FBR M 22.5

Additional information on Fibria Celulose SA 'FBR' can be found (here)

Company Description: Fibria Celulose S.A., formerly Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A., is a Brazil-based paper product company. The Company produces bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp (BEKP), which is a variety of hardwood pulp. During the year ended December 31, 2008, the Company sold 84% of its pulp production to third parties, and the Company uses the remainder internally to manufacture a range of printing and writing paper products, including coated and uncoated printing and writing papers, thermal papers, carbonless papers and other specialty papers.

The Company produces a variety of pulp and paper products. The Company produces pulp both for sale (market pulp) and for use in its paper production. VCP sells BEKP to both the Brazilian domestic and export market. VCP produce coated and uncoated printing and writing paper and other specialty/chemical papers. Within the printing and writing paper category, VCP produce cut-size, folio-size, and rolled products. During 2008, VCP sold 1,200,768 tons of bleached pulp as market pulp to third parties in the domestic market and outside of Brazil. VCP had a 29% share of the Brazilian domestic market. During 2008, the Company produced 251,358 tons of printing and writing paper consisting of 155,216 tons of uncoated and 96,142 tons of coated paper. Its coated paper is used for a variety of purposes, including labels, inserts, brochures and magazine covers. Uses for its uncoated paper include notebooks, books and continuous forms. VCP produce coated and uncoated paper in reels and sheets and in cut-size paper.

The Company’s paper products can be divided into three major categories: uncoated printing and writing papers; coated printing and writing papers, and carbonless and thermal and papers. Coated printing and writing paper, which is engaged in coated woodfree paper used for promotional materials, folders, internal sheets and cover of magazines, books, tabloids, inserts and mailing. Uncoated printing and writing paper, which is engaged in uncoated woodfree paper in reels, sheets and cut-size designed for maximum performance in photocopying machines and laser and inkjet printers, and alkaline offset paper. Carbonless paper, which is engaged in producing multi-copy forms for credit card receipts, invoices and other applications in place of traditional carbon paper. Thermal paper, which is used in fax machines; new applications include supermarket receipts, bar code labels, toll tickets, water and gas bills and receipts for automated teller machines (ATMs) and credit card machines.

The Company obtains a majority of its wood from approximately 102,000 hectares of forest plantation in a total area of 184,000 hectares of land located in the state of Sao Paulo. While the Company has enough wood to satisfy its requirements, from time to time, it purchases wood from unrelated third parties for use in its paper and pulp mills. During 2008, it consumed approximately 88% of its own wood and 12% of its wood from those third parties.

.

Chart for Mosaic Company

Chart updates daily

Recent News:
01/13 Latin American Markets: Brazilian stocks slide as oil usurps steel gains at MarketWatch (Wed 2:08pm)
 
  11/28 FIBRIA CELULOSE S.A. Financials EDGAR Online Financials (Sat, Nov 28)
   
A full list of the news headlines for Fibria Celulose SA 'FBR' can be found (here)

Our Analysis: The shares of Fibria Celulose SA. 'FBR' moved lower yesterday on heavier than normal trading volume. They finished the day by closing below a pair of recently established support levels. This is a bearish trading signal. THe shares of 'FBR' should continue to move lower and test $20.11/share, a point of support established on December 17th, of last year. If the shares of 'FBR' close below that level, then they should continue to move lower and test $17.86/share, a point of downside support establishing on October 14th of last year. I see upside resistance on the shares of 'FBR' @ $22.22/share, and have set my stops accordingly at $22.63/share.


Stocks Looking Higher

PRGO, BID, XRTX, AAWW, PFE, WMT, SYMC, COV, JOYG, UTHR, NOC, KNOL, CAG, TEL, CYH, MRK, INTU, RTN, MRCY, ENOC, SMTS, NGS, HLS, UAUA, JNJ, STEC, WU, TWC, ECA, TSN, CVE, MJN, BVF

Stocks Looking Lower
T, PBR, USO, RMBS, OXY, WTI

Yesterday's Edition of the Prime Stock Newsletter
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