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NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX)
Past Opinions
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| Comments (5-27- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Friday @ 1,130.05 down 1.40 points. Much like the other major indices I track it appears that the short term rally in the NDX has ended and atleast a short term move lower has started. I do not foresee this move to lower being of any severity, and I am initially considering it to be a healthy and normal consolidation. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,130.05 Current Expectations: Called Lower with a Sell Signal with the close on May 19h @ 1,112.50. The NDX should move lower and test 1,093.12 and then 1,023.52 on a closing basis. Comments (5-19- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,112.50 down 41.98 points. The sharp move lower in the NASD 100 (NDX) yesterday appears to have broken the upward trend in the NDX. It now appears that the NDX has generated a Sell Signal and will continue to move lower. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,112.50 Current Expectations: Called Lower with a Sell Signal with the close on May 19h @ 1,112.50. The NDX should move lower and test 1,093.12 and then 1,023.52 on a closing basis. Comments (5-6- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,136.26 down 0.25 points. The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed above 1,127.06 on Friday of last week. In the process the NDX completed a cup pattern with a measured move to 1,302.22 Whether the NDX moves directly towards that level or suffers a minor retracement before moving higher remains to be seen. But my suspicion is that somewhere before long we will see a pullback in the NDX. The market is definitely different than it was during the "Bubble Years", during which analyst seemed to only be concerned with setting new higher price levels for the stocks to obtain. Witness last week's analyst comments on Dell Computer, citing the recent price appreciation and valuation concerns as a reason to downgrade the shares of Dell. Something you almost never saw during the "Bubble Years." I think this activity is going to be more common, and as a result the indices are going to subject to increasing volatility. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,136.26 Current Expectations: Called Higher with the close on April 14th @ 1,048.31. The NDX should move higher and test 1,302.22 on a closing basis. Comments (4-29- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,107.13 up 23.94 points. The trend of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) continues to be to the upside. The NDX also sufferred from light volume today. It appears the NDX will continue to move higher and test 1,127.06, it's closing high set on November 25th of last year. If the NDX closes above that level then it will have completed a small cup pattern with a measured move to 1,302.22 Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,083.56 Current Expectations: Called Higher with the close on April 14th @ 1,048.31. The NDX should move higher and test 1,127.06 and then 1,302.22 on a closing basis. Comments (4-21- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Thursday @ 1,083.56 up 28.67 points. The NDX moved sharply higher on heavy volume ahead of the 3 day holiday weekend. The strongest move to the upside of any of the major indices I track. The NDX appears to have worked off the hang over from the bubble market of the late '90s!!!!! This is the first time (with a very brief exception following the post 9-11 rally) the NDX has been above its 9, 30, 50, and 200 day moving averages since the bubble burst!!!!!!!!!!! This is incredibly significant!!! The last time the NDX had a prolonged period below it's 200 day moving average was from mid-April until late August of 1994. It has been almost 9 years since the NDX last crossed from a period of being below it's 200 day moving average to being above it. I am not saying we are going to start another Bull Market run like we say the last time. What this means is that a very significant amount of stock has been accumulated at these lower levels. What this should have accomplished it to have built a base from which the NDX can now start to move to higher levels, and hopefully in the process eliminate the climate of fear that has accompanied the mention of the NASDAQ market. Granted there is always an unforeseen risk of terrorist attack or something of that nature. But the overall outlook is the best I've seen it a technical standpoint in approximately 5 years. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,083.56 Current Expectations: Called Higher with the close on April 14th @ 1,048.31. The NDX should move higher and test 1,093.12 on a closing basis. Comments (4-17- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Wednesday @ 1,052.31 down 0.77 points. The index still appears to be in a slight downward trend, but our indicators are pointing higher. Therefore I am expecting the NDX to continue to move higher and finish filling the gap when the NDX gapped lower on March 24th from the previous day's close of 1,093.12 From there it appears the NDX will be at the upper end of the trading range that has developed this year. From there it is not clear what the NDX will do, but we should find out soon. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,052.31 Current Expectations: Called Higher with the close on April 14th @ 1,048.31. The NDX should move higher and test 1,093.12 on a closing basis. Comments (4-14- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,048.31 up 22.16 points. The index still appears to be in a slight downward trend, but our indicators are pointing higher. Therefore I am expecting the NDX to continue to move higher and finish filling the gap when the NDX gapped lower on March 24th from the previous day's close of 1,093.12 From there it appears the NDX will be at the upper end of the trading range that has developed this year. From there it is not clear what the NDX will do, but we should find out soon. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,048.31 Current Expectations: Called Higher with the close on April 14th @ 1,048.31. The NDX should move higher and test 1,093.12 on a closing basis. Comments (4-1- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,018.66 down 28.06 points. This index gapped lower on the open on Monday. The trend of the NDX is clearly to the downside. It appears that the NDX is going to move lower and fill the gap created March13th, when the index gapped higher on the open. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,018.66 Current Expectations: Called Lower with the close on March 24th @ 1,047.10. Downgraded with a "Sell Signal" with the close on March 25th @ 1,066.57 The NDX should move lower and test 1,015.92, if it closes below that level then it should move lower and test 970.54 Comments (3-25- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 1,0047.10 down 46.02 points. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,047.10 Current Expectations: Both of our indicators are pointing lower on the Nasdaq 100 Index. The recent market rally had pushed the NDX into an over extended position, so a pullback is not unexpected. While the trend of the index is still higher, if the NDX closes today lower, then there is a strong chance a sell signal will be generated indicating a move lower. Comments (3-24- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Friday @ 1,093.12 up 12.88 points. The Nasdaq 100 continues to have the better looking chart of the 3 major indices I am currently tracking. The NDX may be starting to break its long downward trend that started when the market peaked in March of 2000. While it may take a couple of months to determine if the market is going to be moving in a sideways "basing' pattern or actually start a new upward trend, we should be at least recognize that the downward trend of the NASDAQ appears to be at an end. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,093.12 Current Expectations: The NDX should move Higher and test 1,094.87 and then 1,120.49 Comments (3-12- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Friday @ 1,030.45 up 0.66 points. The market is currently in a very volatile period due to the Iraqi situation and the waffling by some of the nations claiming to be our allies. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,030.45 Last Signal: Called lower on 2-24-03 @ 994.69 Current Expectations: The NDX should move Lower and test 951.90 and then 910.13 Comments (3-12- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Tuesday @ 958.82 down 5.47 points. Current Opinion: Closed @ 958.82 Last Signal: Called lower on 2-24-03 @ 994.69 Current Expectations: The NDX should move Lower and test 951.90 and then 910.13 Comments (3-11- 03): The NASDAQ 100 Index closed Monday @ 964.29 down 22.53 points. The NDX gapped lower on the open Monday and appears to be heading towards support @ 951.90. There is a slight amount of support at that level, but I do not expect it to hold. I expect that the NDX will continue to move lower and test 910.13, the point from which it gapped higher on October 17, 2002. However there is a gap at 849.57 that needs to be repaired on the chart, so sooner or later, expect the NDX to move back to that level and "fill" the gap and repair the chart. Current Opinion: Closed @ 964.29 Last Signal: Called lower on 2-24-03 @ 994.69 Current Expectations: The NDX should move Lower and test 951.90 and then 910.13 Comments (Feb. 25, 03): Of the three (3) major market indices, the one I currently feel the most comfortable with, or I should say has the chart that shows the most points of support is the NASDAQ 100 (NDX). Now that is something I do not think I have ever written before, so please pay attention to that remark. This is probably from the fact that the NDX declined the quickest and most of any of the major market indices. In the process it has numerous short lived rallies and has developed a decent trading history at these levels. This does not mean I am expecting a major rally in the NDX anytime soon, but it does mean that I see the most points of support at these levels and believe that the NDX has the least amount of risk of a significant drop when compared to the other indices I track. However, our indicators turned lower with yesterday's close on the NDX, and I am expecting the NDX to move lower and test 984.36, and then 972.48 on a closing basis. If the NDX closes below 972.48 then our next downside target is 951.90 If the NDX is lower again today, our indicators will generate a "Sell Signal". Current Opinion: Closed @ 994.69 Last Signal: Called lower on 2-24-03 @ 994.69 Current Expectations: The NDX should move Lower and test 984.36 and then 972.48 Comments (Feb. 2, 03): In last week's edition of the Sterling Weekly I expected the NDX to move lower, and it did. The NDX closed at 983.05, down 13.13 points on the week. The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed Friday @ 983.05 down 2.46 points. In the process our indicators generated a "Buy Signal", and as a results I am expecting the NDX to move higher from these levels. Current Opinion: Closed @ 983.05 Last Signal: Buy Signal on 1-31-03 @ 983.05 Current Expectations: The NDX should move Higher and test 1,032.67 and then 1,049.03 Comments (Jan 26, 03): The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed Friday @ 996.18 down 36.49 points. I am expecting the NDX to continue to move lower and test 980.36 and then 972.48 In looking at the chart of the NDX today, it occurred to me that there are numerous gaps all over the place. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect that the NDX will eventually move lower and fill those gaps. In short this index isn't out of the woods yet. Current Opinion: Closed @ 996.18 Last Signal: Sell Signal on 1-16-03 @ 1,061.49 Current Expectations: The NDX should continue to move Lower and test 980.36 and then 972.48 Comments (Jan 21, 03): The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed Friday @ 1,017.58 down 43.88 points. I am expecting the NDX to continue to move lower and test 984.36. Afterwards support is at 980.36 and then 972.48 Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,017.58 Last Signal: Sell Signal on 1-16-03 @ 1,061.49 Current Expectations: The NDX should continue to move Lower and test 984.36 and then 980.38 Comments (Jan 17, 03): The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed Thursday @ 1,061.49 down 12.11 points. In the process it generated a "Sell Signal". As a result I am expecting the NDX to continue to move lower and test support at the 1,049.03 level. If the NDX closes below that level, then I expect it to continue to move lower and test 984.36 on a closing basis. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,061.49 Last Signal: Sell Signal on 1-16-03 @ 1,061.49 Current Expectations: The NDX should continue to move Lower and test 1,049.03 and then 984.36 Today's Comments (Jan 12, 03): The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed Friday 1,087.36 up 11.31 points. Last week the NDX moved through both of our near term upside targets. The trend of the NDX continues to be higher. Our current upside target on the NDX is 1,127.06 If the NDX closes above that level, then our next upside target is 1,149.91 In looking at the chart of the NDX it does appear that there is the potential for the index to move above the 1,300 level. However, NDX gapped lower on April 22, 2002 The "Rule of Thumb" is that a stock or index will always return and "fill the gap". My concern is that the NDX will move to 1,385.01 the point from which it gapped lower, and then turn back lower again. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,087.36 Last Signal: Buy Signal on 1-2-03 @ 1,027.86 Current Expectations: The NDX should continue to move higher and test 1,127.06 and then 1,149.91 (Jan 5, 03): The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) closed Friday at 1,031.63 up 3.77 points. The NDX generated a Buy Signal with Thursday's strong move upwards. As a result I am expecting the NDX to continue to move higher and test 1,049.03 and then 1,065.86 However the mid to long term outlook for this index remains unclear, and any attempt to pry that information from the current chart could easily cause brain damage. So without causing any more damage to my brian than I need to, I took a look at the NDX chart and tried to determine a mid range outlook. It appears at this point in time the NDX is in the process of building a base in the 900-1,000 point range. I would normally expect the NDX to track the movement of the Dow, but I feel the structural problems of the NDX could cause it to be left behind when the other major indices do finally start to move higher. Current Opinion: Closed @ 1,031.63 Last Signal: Buy Signal on 1-2-03 @ 1,027.86 Current Expectations: The NDX should continue to move higher and test 1,049.03 and then 1,065.86 Nov. 4th: TheNasdaq 100 Index closed today at 1,046.99 up 27.93 points. The index gapped higher on the open, and I never like to see a gap on the charts. The old rule of thumb is that the stock or index will always come back and fill the gap. Which in this case means the NDX will eventually move lower to 1,019. But until then I am continuing to expect the NDX to move higher and test 1,049.03 and then 1,060.89 Today's Opinion: Closed @ 1,046.99 Last Signal: Buy Signal on 10-10 with the close of 849.57 Current Expections: Higher. The index should test 1,049.03 and then 1,060.89 on a closing basis. |
| The Triple Q's (QQQ): The Triple Q's are an exchange traded fund (ETF) that is identical in composition to the NASDAQ 100 Index. This makes the QQQ an excellant way to buy and sell the NASDAQ 100 index. |
| Description of the NASAQ 100: The NASDAQ 100 is a capitalization weighted index designed to reflect the performance of the 100 largest NASDAQ companies. The problem with this index is that there is a massive disparity between the market capitalization of the largest NASDAQ Company (Microsoft) and the company ranked 100th in market capitalization. As a result of this I do not believe this index accurate reflects the perfomance of the top 100 companies in the NASDAQ. |
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